Thursday, 8 May 2014
Unfortunately, due to time commitments, Zeinab is unable to attend the UGM and present her work in person. However, she has given us permission to distribute the abstract below. The full paper can be downloaded from http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.02.006

An integrated catchment-coastal modelling system for real-time water quality forecasts

Zeinab Bedri 1*, Aisling Corkery 1, John J. O’Sullivan 1, Marcos X. Alvarez 2, Anders Chr. Erichsen 3, Louise A. Deering 4, Katalin Demeter 4, Gregory O'Hare 3, Wim G.Meijer 4, and Bartholomew Masterson 4

1 Centre for Water Resources Research, School of Civil, Structural, and Environmental Engineering, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland
2 Clarity Centre, UCD School of Computer Science and Informatics, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland
3 DHI, Agern Alle 5, DK-2970 Hørsholm, Denmark
4 School of Biomolecular and Biomedical Science, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland.
* Corresponding author: Tel. +353 1 716 3228, Fax: +353 1 7163297, E-mail: zeinab.bedri@ucd.ie

Abstract

This paper presents a new marine water quality forecasting system for real-time and short-term predictions. The forecasting system comprises an integrated catchment-coastal model and a database management system. The integrated model is validated in an Irish catchment-coastal system using hydrodynamic and water quality data. The forecasting system was then used to provide short-term and real-time forecasts of Escherichia Coli (E. coli) and Intestinal Enterococci concentrations (IE) in the near-shore coastal waters of Bray, Ireland. Two hind-cast scenarios were simulated: 5F in which predictions were based on rainfall forecasts only; and I-5F where forecasts of 5F were improved by incorporating real-time data. Results indicate that predictions of E. coli of scenario I-5F are improved. Also predicted IE concentrations by Scenario 5F were comparably higher than the I-5F predications, but due to the wide scatter of observed IE concentrations, the superiority of one scenario over the second could not be definitively determined.

Keywords: Real-time forecasts; integrated model; marine water quality; three-dimensional hydrodynamics; MIKE; catchment modelling


Acknowledgements

The work has been funded by an INTERREG 4A (Ireland and Wales) project. Technical support on the use of the model was provided by DHI (UK and Denmark). Thanks are extended to Dr Ahmed Nasr, Dublin Institute of Technology (DIT) for his help and useful discussions and to Mr Garrett Keane, DIT, for the assistance in the calibration of the tidal constituents of the MIKE Global model. The authors wish to acknowledge the help and information provided by Irish EPA, Bray Town council, Wicklow County council and the staff of Shanganagh Treatment works.

Article in press: Bedri, Z., et al., An integrated catchment-coastal modelling system for real-time water quality forecasts, Environmental Modelling & Software (2014), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.02.006

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DHI is an independent, international consulting and research organisation with the global objective of advancing technological development and competence with respect to water, in all of its environments.

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